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India’s INDCs and the road to Paris – 5

(Note: In this series of posts, we take a closer look at India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), ahead of the Paris climate talks. This concluding post primarily examines trends in India’s energy consumption, which is what will primarily determine whether we can meet our climate targets or not. Also read: Part 1Part 2Part 3 and Part 4 of the series)

India’s Burgeoning Cities to Drive World Energy Demand, IEA Says
India will account for a quarter of global energy demand growth by 2040 as booming manufacturing and a bigger, richer and more-urbanized population set the nation on the path of sustained and rapid expansion, the International Energy Agency said. The country’s oil demand is expected to reach 10 million barrels a day in the next quarter of a century, marking the fastest growth in the world, the Paris-based agency said in a report released Tuesday. Last month the IEA forecast that India would consume almost 4 million barrels a day this year.

Why India is about to move to the ‘center stage’ of world energy
The Washington Post
The disconnect is huge: Even as countries of the world pledge to cut their greenhouse gas emissions going into the Paris climate talks, recent analyses suggest that overall emissions will still rise through the year 2030, and current national pledges will merely blunt the force of that trend. The key reason, highlighted in the new 2015 World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency, is that the coming decades will also see an incredible one-third growth in overall energy consumption through 2040, much of which will still be satisfied by coal and other fossil fuels. The agency highlights one particular country to underscore this trend – though there are many other candidates – India, home to 1.3 billion people, 240 million of whom lack electricity, most of them living in rural areas.

IEA concludes INDCs will not limit warming to 2 °C; focus on India without any push to the OECD countries to reduce consumption
It’s not everyday that the Washington Post features India in headlines, so when on Diwali day, that happened[1] in the context of publication of International Energy Agency’s[2] World Energy Outlook 2015[3], it was noteworthy. The IEA report has worrying conclusion that the world won’t be able to limit warming to 2 °C even if all the pledges (INDCs) submitted in advance of Paris Summit get implemented, “The (global) emissions trajectory implies a long-term temperature increase of 2.7 °C by 2100.” The IEA report has special focus on India as the largest additional emission contributor to 2040, though it does not have a word about the developed countries’ huge current and historical contribution to the problem, nor does it recommend the need to reduce consumption levels of the developed countries from current unsustainable levels.

India provided $103 million per year in national subsidies to oil, gas and coal producers
A research study by International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) on fossil fuels reveals that on an average over the years 2013 and 2014, India provided $103 million per year in national subsidies to oil, gas and coal producers. In particular, capital outlay targeting the extraction and production of crude oil, natural gas, coal and the development of fossil-fuelled power projects constituted the largest share of India’s national subsidies to fossil fuel production, averaging $64 million per year across 2013 and 2014. Other support in the form of tax breaks for coal excise duties and fossil fuel transport infrastructure also contributed to this total with average of $40 million each in 2013 and 2014. (View/download report (pdf): India’s subsidies to oil gas and coal production)

OECD countries to limit overseas financing for coal plants
Associated Press
A compromise struck by the United States, Japan and other major nations will restrict export financing to build coal power plants overseas, but not eliminate it completely. The agreement reached earlier this week is an important step that sends a strong political message ahead of upcoming climate change negotiations in Paris, an American official and environmentalists said. The Obama administration announced in 2013 that it would end U.S. financing for overseas coal plants, and has been pressuring others to join. Japan was among those opposed, arguing that its high-efficiency power plant technology is the best option for developing countries that need affordable energy.

Prakash Javadekar Interview: Developed World Should Vacate The Carbon Space
The Huffington Post
“We need development space. Why are we coming to Paris? I’m asking the developed work to vacate the carbon space so that we can park our development. Otherwise, you will say that the car parking is full. No, you must vacate the car parking so that we can park our cars.”

Paris climate summit: India wants a comprehensive deal
Interview with Environment secretary Ashok Lavasa
What is India’s view on peaking year and decarbonisation?
We don’t understand what decarbonisation means. We move in a direction of low carbon path is fine. To announce any peaking year may not be right or possible at this point for a simple reason we have given our prediction for 2030 by when we are saying there will be so much reduction. Most of these actions on mitigation will be driven by new technologies that are not possible to predict now. It will be too hasty for us to declare peaking year.

Jairam Ramesh Interview: India Is Failing To Tell Its Climate Change Story To The World
Huffington Post
“I think where the UPA and NDA governments differ, I think there is a schizophrenic attitude in the NDA government of dismantling the edifice of environmental regulation domestically, and trying to claim international leadership in climate change. I find this incompatible. I think that you have to be responsible domestically. You can’t dismantle environmental laws and regulations domestically and tell the world that you’re going to serious about climate change.”

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