National Consultation on Energy

Energy is one of the key inputs for all kinds of activities – economic, welfare-oriented, industrial, recreational.  Right from the global to national to personal, access to affordable and safe energy is one of the critical issues that determine to a large extent – the state of well being of a society or parts of it.  This has been true from the dawn of civilisation, and recently, in September 2015, the UN adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have put this as the Goal no.7 (“Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”).  Out of all the forms that we consume energy in, ‘modern’ electricity is one of the most convenient, and yet in our country (as in those in similar “developmental stage”), electricity generation, transmission and access is one of the most hotly debated and contested areas of public discourse and actions.  With increasing urbanization and average income in India, both the absolute amount of per capita energy & electricity consumption (with glaring disparities between states, regions and across economic classes) and the percentage of electricity in the total energy consumption basket – are increasing steadily, and so are the debates and contestations.

Increased availability of energy in general and electricity in particular, have undeniably created many economic and social opportunities for a large section of our people, while Electricity production, transmission and distribution also have a large number of associated Rights, Pollution, Denials, Equity and Justice issues connected with them, right from mining coal or damming a river, where and what kinds of power plants are built, to where the transmission lines go through, to who gets how much of this electricity and who pays all the associated costs in terms of damaged life and livelihood-support systems, health costs etc.  In case of nuclear power, there are the added complexities of international negotiations and secret dealings, as well as massive public financial burdens and accident risk perceptions. These have given rise to a large number of people’s opposition / resistances to such massive projects, and often led to confrontational situations between government, communities and corporate entities pushing these projects.  Though only a small portion of India’s total energy consumption is consumed in the form of electricity, a very large part of the deprivations and unrest are around such projects, making these issues important to understand  and address. Also, electricity projects – in their entirety – are not only dependent on the energy source, but also on large tracts of land, often forests and also large amounts of water, thus often impinging on marginal livelihoods in a heavy manner.  The fast increasing privatization of electricity generation and distribution, particularly post the 2003 electricity act, has also changed the social function nature of electricity and added more complexity to the multiple conflicts.

On the other hand, a very large section of India is becoming increasingly dependent on availability of more amounts of electricity at ‘affordable’ rates, for an increasing number of economic, industrial, social and personal activities. With about 32% of the population living in urban areas (projected to go up to about 50% by 2050 or so) and the annual per capita income reaching close to Rs.100,000 (with the disturbing trend of huge and increasing disparities within), the demand and consumption of electricity in India has grown rapidly over the past two and half decades, from an installed capacity of about 63,000 MW in 1991 to about 300,000 MW in 2016.  In 2013-14, India became the 3rd largest electricity producer in the world, after China and USA, and per capita electricity production reached about 1000 KWhr per year in 2014-15.  Though the population has grown from around 85 crores (850 million) in 1991 to about 127 crores now – an increase of about 1.5 times, the increase in installed electricity capacity of about 4.76 times – has not resulted in ALL people in the country getting access to reasonable levels of electricity !  As per government figures, over one-fourth of the households still lack a basic electricity connection, with another one-third getting only a miniscule amount due to only occasional availability in the local grid.  A poor state like Bihar is kept in the dark – with nearly half its households (80% of rural households in Bihar are un-electrified) lacking this basic service.  Taken in with the most populous state Uttar Pradesh, where about 40% of rural households are yet unconnected by March 2016, this shows the extremely unequal, unjust and discriminatory nature of electricity growth in India. And if we consider that nearly 68% of our electricity generation is from coal power plants, and a very large part of the coal mining (with its associated displacement, deforestation, pollution, water depletion & contamination etc) is done in the seven states of Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattishgarh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Telengana and Maharashtra — one finds it very hard to explain how four of these have some of the lowest household electrification rates in India !

The electricity scenario in India has indeed changed dramatically in the recent past.  From being described as perennially short of this essential service, the recent statement of the union power minister that ‘India is now electricity surplus’, sounds discordant, particularly with the massive deprivations as outlined in the last section. By the figures of the Ministry of Power, India became ‘Electricity surplus’ by 2015, and this trend is continuing in 2016. With an installed capacity of over 300,000 MW, India’s projected peak demand in 2016-17 is only about 165,000 MW, and the projected generation – about 170,000 MW (MoP).  The present domestic coal production of around 570-580 million tons is attempted to be ramped up to over 1000 million tons per annum by 2020, while the reality is that – due to lack of current demand, Coal India is said to be looking for exports to countries like Bangladesh !  Several already completed power plants are running at low PLF (plant load factor) due to lack of electricity demand (which is also a result of the financial ill-health of the state owned distribution companies).   As a result of the drastic drop in international oil and gas prices, many idling gas based power plants in India are starting generation at close to competitive costs.  On top of this, the government has announced (and also submitted to UNFCCC last October, as its climate action plan – INDC /NDC) an ‘ambitious’ plan of installing 176,000 MW of renewable electricity capacity by 2022, from the current (March 2016) RE capacity of about 44,000 MW (an addition of 132,000 MW, with Solar PV alone contributing another 92,500 MW, from its current capacity of 7,500 MW! ).

This is even more incongruous with the fact that – facing this ‘electricity surplus and large idling capacity’, the government has further plans to add anywhere between 400,000 to 500,000 MW of ‘conventional’ electricity capacity (coal, nuclear, big-hydro) in the next 15 years or so !  This high-projection of massive installed capacity need by 2030/32 is probably being pursued on the basis of obsolete and outdated models of a continuing GDP growth of 8-9%, of invalid models of electricity input versus GDP growth, and completely ignoring the changed dynamics and economics of renewable electricity vis-a-vis conventional sources.   The plain economic considerations of coal power vs solar photo-voltaic (PV) and wind power has also changed dramatically over the last 10 odd years, with much lower impact (translating to lower externalized cost) wind and solar PV now costing anywhere between Rs.3.6 to Rs.5.5 per KWHr, and cost of solar PV falling continuously.  As a result, the world has seen more total investment in these renewable power capacity creation than investments in coal or other thermal power, over the last two years. The seriousness of the climate change threat and the urgency of moving away from fossil fuels as soon as possible, has likely added to this shift, and must form an important contributing factor in our electricity plans.

Thus it is very clear that this is an area requiring far more engagement, enquiry, analysis and understanding.  Taking the first steps in that direction, some of our groups (Beyond Copenhagen/ PAIRVI, Centre for Financial Accountability and DSG together) have tried to engage with a large number of grass-roots groups around central, western, eastern and north-eastern parts of India, over the last one and a half years – who are seized of these issues from different perspectives. This was attempted through organizing seven workshops and two meetings in these regions, engaging well over 300 people belonging to over 100 groups from these states.

As the next step, we are inviting a wider community of organizations and individuals who have engaged with and worked on the electricity issues in India over the years, for a national level consultation.  The objective of this consultation is to share our various perspectives, understanding etc, and try to enrich our collective understanding of India’s power/ electricity scenario, its recent evolution, the trends and the possibilities & challenges for technical, political and economic transition.

Soumya Dutta
Beyond Copenhagen Collective

Rajesh Kumar
Centre for Financial Accountability

Yogesh Diwan
Jan pahel, MP

PROGRAMME

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Day 01, August 11

9:00–10:00                Registration
10:00–10:30               Inaugural Session (Welcome, Purpose of the consultation, suggestions from participants)
10:30–11:30               Brief self-introduction, with location, organisation area of work etc.
11:00–11:20               Tea Break
11:20–12:00               Panel – Electricity scenario in India (Demand-Availability, Sector-wise capacity & “plans”, Regional pictures, Rise of Pvt players)
12:00–12:30               Panel – Global scene and trends in electricity,
12:30–13:30               Panel – Reality checks from the ground (multiple Impacts, Access/deprivation, needs vs demand,  …….)

13:30–14:30               Lunch break

14:30–15:30              Panel – Energy policy in India, the changes happening & desired,
15:30–1630               Facilitated discussion : Fulfilling the electricity need in India — where should we go from here ?
16:30–16:50              Tea break
16:50–18:00              Global Connections (Water, Climate Change, critical material limits, Forests, Finance, Political drivers),
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Day 02, August 12

09:30–10:30              Issues /questions arising from 1st days deliberations,
10:30–11:30              Current status and future : Sectoral group discussions (coal, big-hydro, Renewable, Nuclear, Efficiency)
11:30–11:50              Tea break
11:50–12:30              Reporting from sectoral group discussions & discussion,
12:30–13:30              Exploring regional cooperation possibilities (region-wise group meetings : east, west, central, north, south, north-east),

13:30–14:30             Lunch break

14:30–15:30             Need for capacity /expertise building – identifying thematic areas and facilitating grouips (pollution monitoring, health issues, Water, ……)
15:30–16:30             Explore possibility of a collective statement of agreed common minimum positions
16:30–16:45             Conclusion and thanks